It's hard being the 'Old Man on the Porch', watching the parade going
by, and not out marching behind the flag. Still, that vantage point
has its advantages. After all, we have seen many parades - - we have
a fair idea how they begin, with fanfare and drums - - and how they
end - - in blood and tears - - all of that tempered with a feeling of
'necessity' - a feeling that some parades are necessary to preserve
all things worthwhile.
I am feeling 'old' this morning.
What do you think of this??
May 4, 2024
Special Edition
IRAN, WHAT TO DO WITH/TO THEM?
AND HOW DOES THE CONCEPT OF
FORCE PROJECTION FIT INTO THE EQUATION?
By: Marvin L. Covault,
Lt Gen US Army, retired
May 1, 2024
(Emphasis by the author)
(Emphasis added)
The world is frantically searching for answers to the question, what
to do about Iran? The discussions seem to quickly turn into a debate
about military options; who will/should do “it”, what military actions
will be best/possible, when to strike, where to strike, why course of
action A is better than other,s and how to strike (conventional
munitions, nuclear weapons, drones, missiles, manned aircraft, etc.).
Every day there seems to be a new version of the above. Perhaps they
all miss the mark. Let’s begin by dissecting the problem.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
1. Iran has the 3rd largest world reserves of oil and the 2nd
largest reserves of gas.
Iran is exporting more oil than at any time in the past six years,
around 3 million barrels per day, giving its economy a $35
billion-a-year boost,
The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention and
thereby created an increase of 20 % oil production over the last 12
months and will continue to grow throughout 2024, currently averaging
about 3.2 million barrels per day.
2. Since 1984 Iran has been designated “the world’s leading sponsor
of terrorism.” Tehran played a major role in forming Hezbollah and
helping it conduct attacks in Lebanon, including the 1983 bombings of
the U.S. Marine barracks and embassy, which together killed more than
300 people.
3. For four decades the Iranian leaders have consistently
articulated their twofold objectives; “destruction of Israel and
“death to America”.
4. Iran recently demonstrated their force-projection capability by
launching over 300 drones and missiles in a single failed attack
against Israel.
5. The UN is a toothless burearcracy and in its current
configuration worthless with respect to their mission, “to achieve and
maintain international security.”
6. The Trump administration renewed UN sanctions on Iran and
enforced them. Iran’s foreign currency reserves fell from $128
billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2019,
7. During the Trump administration, Iran’s capabilities and options
were reduced and the U.S. was gaining ground in Middle East countries’
acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and prosper as a friendly
neighbor.
8. For the Biden administration it has been three years of
appeasement. Biden has rewarded the Ayatollah to the tune of about
$100 billion; that is, massive revenue from the non-enforcement of
U.S. oil sanctions over three years, a $6 billion ransom payment and a
$10 billion sanctions waiver.
9. Tehran has used its so-called “proxy army” of more than a dozen
militias and terror groups across the Middle East with outposts around
the world to help foment instability, carry out attacks, and expand
the scope of the Islamic Revolution.
10. Iran has contributed hundreds of millions of dollars towards
training and equipping Hamas, and Hizballah terrorist organizations in
the past few years. In Yemen, Iran has provided a wide range of
weapons, training, advanced equipment such as unmanned aerial systems,
and other support to Houthi militants, who engaged in hundreds of
attacks against regional targets in Saudi Arabia and are now
endangering world shipping in the Red Sea. When Trump took office, he
put the Houthi organization on the world terrorist list. Biden,
immediately took them off the terrorist list for no reason other than
to undo a Trump initiative.
11. Currently, the U.S. has about 4,000 troops deployed throughout the
Middle East. Since 7 October, 2023 there have been over 150
Iran-sponsored attacks on these soldiers. In January three U.S.
soldiers were killed and 40 others injured when an Iran-backed militia
struck their base in Jordan.
12. NUCLEAR WEAPONS: Periodically since 2021 various sources have
speculated that Iran could possibly produce a nuclear weapon within
“weeks”. Do they now have one? No one knows or they are afraid to
tell. But the bottom line is that IRAN CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH A
NUCLEAR WEAPON. This Coalition concept of getting Iran’s attention can
also be used as a nuclear deterrent.
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE ABOVE:
ü Erase oil and gas exports from their economic equation and Iran
would become basically a poor country.
ü Iran’s land-force military capability is of little concern in the
larger context of their intent to destroy Israel and death to America.
ü Iran has been, is currently and will continue to be THE problem in
the Middle East and for the past three years the Biden Administration
has supported that destabilization, thereby threatening Israel,
threatening world-wide shipping lanes and de facto supported Iran’s
soon-to-be nuclear capability.
Given the above information and conclusions, we can now more clearly
define the problem with Iran. Without gas and oil exports, Iran is
basically a poor nation that would be unable to support terrorist
organization with hundreds of millions of dollars in funding, training
and equipment. With their billions of dollars from oil and gas
exports, Iran is a world-wide threat to international stability and
security.
Simply stated, the problem is that for four decades Iran has been
allowed to build a force projection capability consisting of
Iran-trained, equipped and led terrorist organizations operating
outside Iran’s borders. Take away Iran’s ability to financially
support those forces and they will no longer be a significant
conventional threat to Middle East stability.
The intent of this essay is to get the current administration off its
collective butt, cool off the armed conflict in the Middle East, and
get the attention of the Iranian Ayatollah who feels comfortable
blowing off criticism from the remainder of the world.
BOTTOM LINE:
We need to stop thinking about 12 Iran-supported terrorist
organizations as independent operators and begin referring to them as
forward-deployed elements of the greater Iran military establishment.
Forward deploying forces is not a new concept. For example, the U.S.
has had forward air and land forces on European soil continuously
since WW II and in South Korea since the armistice was signed in 1952.
Accepting that Hamas, Hizballah, Houthis and militias in Iraq and
Syria are an active and essential part of Iran’s military efforts in
the Middle East leads us to the conclusion that, in fact, Iran
attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, just as in a bold move they tried
and failed miserably to attack Israel directly with drones and
missiles on 13 April, 2024.
Direct action needs to be taken against Iran and the UN is incapable
of leading such an effort.
Course of action A is to take the fight directly to Iran with an
American-led coalition of nations.
We know that an American-led Coalition is possible because we did it
in Desert Storm,1991 against Saddam Hussein after Iraqi forces invaded
and occupied Kuwait in 1990. Call it Operation Middle East Freedom,
2024
PHASE ONE: BUILD THE ORGANIZATION AND DATA BASE.
Use the existing G7 as the base of the coalition. The Group of Seven
is an intergovernmental political and economic forum consisting of
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the
United States; additionally, the European Union is a "non-enumerated
member". Invite all other nations to join the coalition with military
assets or just in name only.
Define the end-state. Take away Iran’s ability to support their
forward-deployed terrorist organizations that are destabilizing
world-wide peace and stability.
Immediately begin a detailed intelligence gathering operation using
the capabilities of all coalition members. Emphasis will be on
Humint, human intelligence resources to accomplish the following:
ü Determine the exact location of every Iranian air defense asset.
ü Determine the exact location of every combat aircraft and helicopter.
ü Determine the address of every facility that is engaged in the
production of weapons, drones, military gear and ammunition.
ü Build a data base of everything associated with production,
transportation and exporting of gas and oil.
PHASE TWO: FORWARD DEPLOYMENT
Move the coalition force air assets to Saudi Arabia; just as we did in 1991.
PHASE THREE: EXECUTE
The intent of Operation Middle East Freedom is to use airpower to
minimize Iran’s 40-year reign as the world’s leading sponsor of
terrorism. No boots on the ground at this time for Operation Middle
East Freedom.
FIRST STRIKE, unannounced, will destroy all of Iran’s air defense
command and control and air defense weapons systems. Their 2024
inventory of combat aircraft is 219 plus 126 helicopters; destroy them
on the ground.
SECOND STRIKE: Take down their capability to export millions of
barrels of crude oil per day and thereby reduce financing to support
forward-deployed terrorists and militias. This strike will include a
2-hour warning to Iran’s leaders to immediately remove all civilians
from every area that is engaged in any activity associated with
drilling, production, transport and export of gas and oil.
Three years ago, Iran opened its first oil terminal in the Gulf of
Oman, a move that allows it to avoid using the narrow Strait of Hormuz
shipping route that is vulnerable to being shut down. Take out the
pipeline and terminal capable of handling 1 million barrels per day of
export oil.
When the second-strike warning is issued, ensure that it is available
to the whole world. Take away Iran’s ability to claim the coalition
targeted civilians and caused some ridiculous number of causalities.
THIRD STRIKE: Iran has become a major producer of weapons, missiles,
ammunition and drones to supply their forward deployed terrorist
organization. Use aerial attacks to destroy every weapons production
site; some are undoubtedly deep underground.
Iran's military-industrial complex has been growing rapidly since the
mid-1990s. Today, it reportedly exports weapons to fifty-seven
countries, many in conflict areas, in violation of UNSCR 1747.
Iranian military equipment suitable for terrorists and other customers
includes but is not limited to small arms and ammunition, explosively
formed penetrators (EFPs), communications equipment, night-vision
goggles, thermal scopes, high-power sniper rifles, long-range mortars,
man-portable air-defense systems, missiles and rockets.
DRONES: Iran’s military-industrial complex has produced thousands of
advanced drones used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and combat
against U.S. forces as well as American allies in the Middle East. The
drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, have become one of the greatest
assets of the Iranian-backed “Axis of Resistance”, a network of
militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
As of January 2024, Tehran has exported drones or drone technology to
at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least
seven of their force projection terrorist organizations and militias
in the Middle East.
Drones pose a continuing threat to Middle East security because of
their low cost, widespread availability, and potential deniability,
since their point of origin can be disguised.
Drones to Russia: October, 2022 the Ukrainian Defense Minister
announced, "Approximately 300 Iranian drones remain in the Russian
arsenal and they plan to buy several thousand more."
MISSILES: Iran’s missile proliferation efforts have enormous
destabilizing potential for the region. Iran has about 20 different
ballistic missile models as well as cruise missiles with delivery
ranges up to 2,000 Kilometers. Nine different Iranian missile models
can reach Israel.
PHASE FOUR, SANCTIONS:
Every nation in the coalition will agree to participate in the most
severe sanctions imposed on Iran that have any impact on rebuilding
their gas/oil export business, on rebuilding their military industrial
capabilities and on their ability to transfer financing to any of
their forward deployed terrorist organizations and militias.
MESSAGE TO IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALL KHOMENEI: He is the
most powerful figure in Iran; the country's supreme leader since 1989.
He is head of state and commander-in-chief. He has authority over the
national police and the “morality police.” The Ayatollah also controls
the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps which is in charge of internal
security, and its volunteer wing, the Basiji Resistance Force which
has repeatedly quelled internal dissent.
Simultaneously with the beginning of the FIRST STRIKE, this official
Coalition message will be delivered to the Ayatollah and also
publicized to the world.
Date and time:(as the first strike begins)
Memorandum for: Ayatollah All Khamenei
Subject: This strike is the beginning of Operation Middle East
Freedom. The Coalition of (number) nations intends to take away your
capability to continue to be “the world’s leading sponsor of
terrorism.”
There is no intent to cause military or civilian casualties.
In future strikes you will be warned at least two hours prior to the
strike. When the message announcing the 2-hour dispersal alert to you,
the coalition will also use all available communications means to
inform your citizens because we do not trust you to protect them. Any
reports of citizen casualties, if they are true, will be your
responsibility and the world will know that.
Ayatollah, there are three circumstances explained next that will
cause the coalition to escalate the operation to include ground
operations.
CONDITION ONE FOR ESCALATION:
The coalition is taking the same position of that practiced by NATO
nations over the past eight decades. That is, Article 5 of the North
Atlantic Treaty states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack
against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack
against them all.”
The point being, the Coalition is hereby advising you that if there is
any counter attack, including cyber, conventional military, manned
air, drones of any kind, missiles, rockets or nuclear, against any
Coalition member from this moment forward by your forces in Iran or
any of the terrorist or militias forwarded deployed that you support
in any way will result in an immediate response from the Coalition.
The response will be to immediately transition from an air-only
operation to an all-out air-ground operation. The Ground operation’s
intent will be to accomplish the following:
ü All military forces and every associated facility and military item
will be dissolved and/or destroyed.
ü Military forces resisting the Coalition ground force will become
casualties or captured. POWs will be incarcerated.
ü Any military leader of a company-level sized force or larger may
surrender in-mass if every person in the unit comes forward with their
uniforms and every piece of equipment associated with their military
duties. The equipment will be destroyed and the personnel released to
go home.
ü Any individual military member may of their own choosing appear at a
designated site with uniforms and equipment, surrender his/her
allegiance to your military and be released to go home.
ü Within hours or days, you will have no military force or military equipment.
ü Your government will cease to exist.
ü The coalition will provide all support necessary for a new
government of-the-people and by-the-people to be selected and seated.
ü The general nature of the Iranian society will include equal
opportunities for all men and women alike in education, property
ownership, general rights and privileges, professional careers in law,
medicine, teaching, government, etc.
THE SECOND CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to
ground operations described above has to do with your intent to become
a nuclear power. If it is determined that you have (1) completed
development of a nuclear weapon or (2) that you have purchased or
bartered for and have on hand all the necessary elements to produce a
nuclear weapon within days or (3) if you have purchased a completed
nuclear weapon, the Coalition ground forces will engage and take down
that entire nuclear capability and destroy every associated facility
you have hidden underground or inside mountains.
THE THIRD CONDITION that will cause the Coalition to escalate to
ground operations described above has to do with your barbaric
dehumanizing of women in a modern world.
During the late 20th and early 21st centuries in Iran, women's rights
have been severely restricted, compared with those in most developed
nations. The World Economic Forum in 2017 ranked Iran 140, out of 144
countries, for gender parity. In 2017, in Iran, females comprised just
19% of the paid workforce,
Ayatollah, as you are well aware, you formed up the “Morality Police
Force” in 1979 and still control them today.
While Iran has reported that the morality police force was abolished
in 2022, the same day Iran launched its first ever direct attack on
Israel,13 April, 2024, you ordered your morality police force in
several cities to take to the streets to arrest women accused of
flouting its strict Islamic dress code.
Under Iran's sharia, or Islamic law, women are obliged to cover their
hair and wear long, loose-fitting clothes. Offenders face public
rebuke, fines or arrest and reeducation centers.
The laws have become a political flashpoint since protests over the
death of a young woman in the custody of the country's "morality
police" in 2022 spiraled into the worst political turmoil since the
1979 Islamic Revolution.
Women who are too casually dressed are frequently arrested for
“inciting public opinion", sometimes tortured, sometimes killed and
often detained in re-education centers.
Ayatollah, this rabid discrimination against women is unprecedented
even in neighboring Muslim countries.
This barbaric behavior must be stopped and it is up to you to do so.
The morality police force must once-and-for-all be completely
disbanded.
Act immediately, the Coalition is watching and waiting for positive actions.
At this point, Ayatollah, you are possibly concluding that this
Coalition is likely to be an impossible undertaking. We are telling
you a coalition effort is certainly within the art of the possible.
You will recall in 1990 Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces attacked,
defeated and occupied Kuwait. Many believed it was a stepping-stone
move towards the Saudi Arabian oil fields. In January 1991 a 38-nation
coalition attacked and defeated Saddam Hussien’s vaunted “mother of
all armies” in just six weeks of air and ground operations. Please pay
attention to these numbers which tell a powerful story.
Coalition: 39 countries, of which 28 contributed combat forces
Force size: Approximately 670,000 troops from 28 countries, 425,000 of
which were from the United States.
Coalition air component size: 2,250 combat aircraft, 1,800 of which
were American.
Coalition airlift: 509,129 passengers and 594,730 tons of cargo carried.
Coalition sorties flown: 100,000+.
Aerial refueling: 15,434 sorties and dispensed 110.2 million gallons of fuel.
Number of dumb bombs dropped: 210,000.
Number of smart bombs dropped: 9,342.
30mm depleted uranium rounds fired by A-10 manned aircraft
(tank-killers): 782,514.
Duration of air campaign before ground invasion: 39 days.
Iraqi tanks lost during the war: 3,700 out of 4,280 in inventory.
Number of U.S. Carrier Battle Groups on station: 6.
Coalition POWs taken during the war: 26.
Iraqi POWs taken during the war: 70,000+.
U.S. combat related deaths: 147
Iraqi military deaths: 100,000+.
Ground war duration: 100 hours.
That, Ayatollah, is a glimpse into your future if you so choose. It
is up to you. The message to you articulated in this memo is not a
“threat”, it is a “promise”. From this day forward, your relationship
with your forward deployed terrorist organizations and various
militia’s must not include offensive military actions or training them
for military actions or financing them to further their offensive
actions or providing them with military equipment to carry out
military actions or assisting them in planning for military actions.
Cease being a sponsor of world-wide terrorism, cease being a
destabilizing force throughout the Middle East. You, Ayatollah, must
understand that,
ü one more Hamas rocket into Israel, or
ü one more missile by Hizballah into Israel, or
ü one more drone from Houthis into the Red Sea shipping lanes or into
Saudi oil production areas, or
ü one more attack on U.S. anti-terrorist forces in the Middle East,
and you will be personally responsible for initiation of phase two
Coalition ground operations inside Iran and the mayhem resulting from
it. We are not doing this to the great Iranian people, we are doing
it for them.
We, the leaders of the following listed Coalition nations, hereby
pledge our willingness and equipment to fulfilling the Coalition
commitment.
In alphabetical order: (for example)
Australia, Brazil, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France,
Finland, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico,
Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Saudi
Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, United
States of America, United Kingdom.
End of the memorandum to the Ayatollah.
Note to President Biden:
ü During your first three years in office, you have played nice with
Iran allowing them to build a sophisticated military-industrial
complex, and establish an extensive weapons-export capability.
ü You have provided the Ayatollah with billions of dollars used to
support terrorist activities.
ü You have expanded the training, equipping, and funding of active
terrorist organizations and militias, thereby destabilizing the Middle
East.
ü President Trump immediately added the Houthi terrorists to the world
terrorist list; you immediately took them off the list.
ü You have softened the previously imposed sanctions, particularly on
gas and oil exports, to enrich Iran and embellish its across-the-board
destabilizing activities culminating with a long-promised attack on
Israel.
ü And in the first four months of the Israeli/Hamas war, Iran-backed
terrorist groups and militias have attacked U.S. and allied forces
stationed in the Middle East over 150 times, killing three and
wounding dozens without a U.S. response from our Commander-in- Chief,
you.
ü That, Mr. President is your legacy.
A WAY AHEAD:
1. Get the above information (readers please help) into the hands
of a senior official in the State Department, DOD and the National
Security Advisor’s staff. Initially handle it as close-hold and
eyes-only in order to keep it from leaking from the Government into
the media as an official action.
2. Get President Biden involved.
3. The President should send the Secretaries of State and Defense
to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mohammed Bin Salman, and get him on board
to accept the Coalition onto Saudi soil.
4. The President should call each G-7 nations and ask them to sign
on to a close-hold eyes-only probable campaign. Ask them to help
expand the Coalition membership.
5. Set the operation’s timeline.
6. The President will offer up our entire air cargo fleet to
rapidly deploy the Coalition’s forces into the Middle East and then
our entire air-refueling fleet in support of Coalition air-ops
execution. See again the amazing numbers from Operate Desert Storm in
1991.
7. Select the best air component commander for the Coalition; it
may be other than a U.S. officer. Select the best ground component
commander, who also may not be a U.S. soldier. Select the best
overall Coalition Commander; hopefully a U.S. leader, the likes of
General “Stormin” Norman Schwarzkopf of Desert Storm fame.
8. Execute soonest and make the world a more safe and secure place.
Marvin L. Covault, Lt Gen US Army, retired, is the author of VISION TO
EXECUTION, a book for leaders, FIX THE SYSTEMS, TRANSFORM AMERICA as
well as the author of a blog WeThePeopleSpeaking.com
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"How to Survive the end of The World as we Know it" is like a dictionary - - full of facts, but so boring it will put you to sleep. The ‘fun’ way to absorb Rawles is with his novel Trilogy: Patriots (1990 – 2009)
Survivors (2011) and Founders (2012) I started in the middle with Survivors, when my brother left it during a visit - - plenty of action and practical approaches to difficult problems in a society that has collapsed - -
The pre-amble “Patriots” concentrates on introducing the college-buddy characters who appear in Survivors, and Founders tells the tale of re-building a Republic from the ashes - - . I recommend reading them in the order I did. Let me know if you have trouble finding any of them, and I’ll send you my copies - - when I got them, they were easy to get in good condition on ebay - -
What a read! Struck a chord with me, after living for over a decade in Libya and having travelled extensively across the Middle East!